2026 Shipping Disruptions: What to Plan For

Over the past few years, global trade has faced repeated disruption - from the Ukraine conflict to ongoing instability in the Red Sea, and more recently tensions affecting the Strait of Hormuz.

While these events are widely reported, their impact on day-to-day shipping is often less clear. In practice, they continue to affect freight rates, transit times, and reliability across most trade lanes.

What’s driving the disruption

Since 2022, key global shipping routes have been affected by:

• disruption to Black Sea trade following the Ukraine conflict

• attacks on vessels transiting the Red Sea and Suez Canal

• capacity restrictions at the Panama Canal due to drought conditions

• increased risk in the Strait of Hormuz, a major energy corridor
  

These events have reduced routing flexibility and introduced ongoing uncertainty into global shipping networks.

What this means in practice

Freight rates and surcharges

Higher fuel costs, longer routings, and war-risk exposure have pushed up overall shipping costs.

In practice, additional charges such as:

• bunker adjustment factors (BAF)

• contingency surcharges

• war-risk premiums
  

have become a more consistent feature of freight pricing.

Transit times and routing

Diversions - particularly around the Cape of Good Hope - have extended transit times on key routes such as Asia–Europe.

In practice, the bigger challenge is not just longer transit times, but variability - the gap between planned and actual arrival has widened, making scheduling and inventory planning more difficult.

As illustrated, Cape routings add both distance and operational complexity, increasing the likelihood of delay.

For planning purposes, a practical rule of thumb is:

• Suez routing: allow 4–5 weeks port-to-port

• Cape routing: allow 6–8 weeks port-to-port

This provides a more realistic baseline for supply chain planning in the current environment.

Capacity and space

Longer routes require more vessels to maintain schedules, effectively reducing available capacity.

In practice, this can create tighter space conditions even when overall demand is relatively stable.

Reliability and planning

While schedule reliability has improved from pandemic levels, it remains below historical norms.

Delays are now more likely to result from a combination of factors, including routing changes, port congestion, and operational constraints.

What we are seeing operationally

From an operational perspective, the most consistent issue is not a single disruption, but the cumulative effect of multiple smaller ones.

For UK importers, this typically means:

• longer and less predictable lead times

• fewer direct routing options

• increased reliance on transhipment hubs

• more frequent cost adjustments

Movements that were previously straightforward now require more planning and flexibility to maintain consistency.

What this means for your supply chain

In this environment, a number of practical adjustments have become standard:

• building more realistic lead times into planning

• allowing for cost fluctuations in freight budgets

• considering alternative routings or modes where appropriate

• ensuring documentation and compliance processes are accurate to avoid added delays

In practice, supply chains that allow for flexibility tend to perform more consistently than those built around fixed assumptions.

Why it matters

Global shipping has moved away from a stable, predictable model to one where disruption is more frequent and often overlapping.

GCL Logistics continues to support customers managing shipments through these conditions, where proactive planning, clear communication, and flexible routing are key to maintaining reliable cargo flow.

If you would like to review your current shipping routes or understand how these changes may affect your shipments, our team can provide guidance in advance of movement.

Disclaimer: This article provides general guidance only and reflects global logistics conditions at the time of publication. Market conditions, routing, and costs may change depending on geopolitical developments and operational factors.

Importers and exporters remain responsible for ensuring compliance with applicable regulations and planning shipments accordingly.